A recent US report titled The Future of the China-Pakistan Military Relationship has suggested that China’s opponents, especially the United States, may not allow an alliance between Beijing and Islamabad.
The report describes the current state of the China-Pakistan relationship as a “threshold alliance” and argues that it might not become a full-fledged partnership “potentially due to China’s own missteps, or due to opponents’ active measures to arrest the relationship.”
The author of the report, Sameer P. Lalwani, works for the US federal institution “US Institute of Peace (USIP)” with a congressional mandate.
The report recalls that analysts predicted a deteriorating relationship between China and Pakistan in 2015, citing various reasons. But the same year, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan and introduced the CPEC, the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and announced the sale of eight submarines to Pakistan.
Now, less than a decade later, the report argues, the China-Pakistan relationship has evolved from an episodic partnership to a threshold alliance.
According to the report, Pakistan is relying more on China to acquire advanced combat and power projection capabilities, while retiring older platforms of American and European origin. However, for the relationship between the two countries to reach its full potential, further steps are necessary. This could include China providing Pakistan with additional military aid and granting access to sensitive systems such as the J-20 stealth fighter or nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Another sign of a stronger relationship between China and Pakistan would be their militaries collaborating on peacetime missions to support each other in the event of a border crisis involving China, India, or Pakistan, according to the report. Additionally, the deployment of Chinese Navy maritime reconnaissance assets in Gwadar could serve as a final indication of the deepening partnership between the two countries.
Although the report acknowledges the increasing military cooperation between China and Pakistan, it also notes that both countries’ civilian and military leaders have explicitly denied any drift towards Beijing’s camp. They have also avoided being pressured to choose between relations with China and the West.
However, the report highlights several potential sources of tension that could impede or even reverse the current trajectory of their military relationship. One such factor is China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang Province, which has the potential to generate public opposition in Pakistan.
A potential source of tension is China’s reluctance to continue injecting cash into Pakistan’s economy or to invest in Iran instead of Pakistan. This could
strain the economic and military relationship between the two countries.